Working Paper #2014-006
Poor trends - The pace of poverty reduction after the Millennium Development Agenda
We review the origins of the dollar-a-day poverty line, discuss
historical poverty and inequality trends, and forecast poverty rates
until 2030 using a new fractional response approach. Three findings
stand out. First, global poverty reduction since 1981 has been rapid but
regional trends are heterogeneous. Second, the pace of poverty reduction
at 1.25$ a day will slow down. Our optimistic scenarios suggest a
poverty rate of 8-9% in 2030, far short of the World Bank's new 3%
target. Third, rapid progress can be maintained at 2$ a day, with an
additional one billion people crossing that line by 2030.
- Keywords
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- poverty
- inequality
- consumption growth
- JEL codes
-
- I32
- O10
- O15
Cite this as
APA 7th ed.Bluhm, R., de Crombrugghe, D., & Szirmai, A. (2014). Poor trends - The pace of poverty reduction after the Millennium Development Agenda (UNU-MERIT Working Paper No. 2014-006). UNU-MERIT. https://unu-merit.nl/publications/working-papers/abstract/?id=5357