Working Paper #2016-064
Tilting at windmills or whipping up a storm? Elites and ethno-nationalist conflict during democratisation
How much influence do political leaders have on the likelihood of ethnic
civil war? Two opposing theoretical positions exist: elite manipulation
theorists argue that leaders incite ethno-nationalism to secure their
hold on power (Snyder 2000, Gagnon 2004). However, political leaders
rarely have both the ability and the ideal environment to manipulate
identities (Brubaker 1998). Instead, structural forces like ethnic
security dilemmas could be driving forces behind conflict onset (Posen
1993), leaving elites virtually without influence on the probability of
civil-war onset. This study uses large-N regressions to test both
theories and a hybrid alternative focussing on two problems inherent to
democratisation settings: the need to settle the demos question and
ongoing competition between incumbent and challenging political leaders.
Results confirm that ongoing democratisation phases, the prior existence
of security worries caused by politicised ethnic divisions, and factors
threatening incumbents have a significant positive influence on the risk
of civil war.
- Keywords
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- democratisation
- ethno-nationalism
- political elites
- civil war
- JEL codes
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- N40
Cite this as
APA 7th ed.Krebs, L. (2016). Tilting at windmills or whipping up a storm? Elites and ethno-nationalist conflict during democratisation (UNU-MERIT Working Paper No. 2016-064). UNU-MERIT. https://unu-merit.nl/publications/working-papers/abstract/?id=6269