Working Paper #2019-021
Can we have growth when population is stagnant? Testing linear growth rate formulas and their cross-unit cointegration of non-scale endogenous growth models
We sub-divide scale-invariant fully or semi-endogenous growth models
into six sub-categories for formulas relating steady-state growth rates
of income per capita and the growth rate of the population depending on
the properties of slopes and intercepts. We capture their steady-state
relation by a long-term relation in panel vector-error-correction models
for 16 countries, and estimate the 16 models simultaneously allowing
successively for more heterogeneity. The slope and intercepts of the
growth equations are positive in this setting under slope homogeneity
but less significant or even negative when allowing for heterogeneity.
Slopes are mostly non-positive. Intercepts are positive for a large
majority of countries. Results therefore favour fully over
semi-endogenous growth with and without slope homogeneity and allow for
growth rate policies. The more frequent case is that long-run growth can
remain positive if population stops growing. Analysis of cross-unit
cointegration suggests that long-run results are internationally
connected.
- Keywords
-
- Endogenous growth
- population growth
- panel times series estimation
- JEL codes
-
- C33
- O47
Cite this as
APA 7th ed.Ziesemer, T. (2019). Can we have growth when population is stagnant? Testing linear growth rate formulas and their cross-unit cointegration of non-scale endogenous growth models (UNU-MERIT Working Paper No. 2019-021). UNU-MERIT. https://unu-merit.nl/publications/working-papers/abstract/?id=8273