UNU-MERIT Working Papers Series
Technological revolutions, structural change & catching-up
Jan Fagerberg & Bart Verspagen #2020-012Technological revolutions, i.e., clusters of technologies that
collectively have a transformational impact on the global economy, are
rare events that dramatically influence the opportunities facing
countries at different levels of development. A central suggestion in
the relevant literature is that countries that manage to adopt the new
technologies associated with a specific technological revolution benefit
economically from it. This is also assumed to go together with a
changing specialisation pattern in international trade. The paper
considers the empirical merits of these suggestions, drawing on GDP and
trade data for a large number of countries on different levels of
development from the post-second-world-war period. The empirical
analysis reveals a major divide in the global economy between a group of
modern, industrialised countries, specialised in technology-based
production, and another group of countries, specialised in commodities
and resource-based products, and lagging behind both in terms of
technology and income. More to the future, the paper also discusses the
extent to which a new green technological revolution, with renewable
energy as a central element, is currently emerging, and what impact this
possibly might have for catching-up, structural change and economic
growth for countries at different levels of development, e.g., China.
Keywords: Technological revolutions, catching up, specialisation, renewable energy, China
JEL Classification: O10, O14, O30, O33
Download the working paper (PDF)
